Prognostication in the Field of Technology

Prognostication in the Field of Technology

The Asian Tsunami, the hurricanes that ravaged the US Gulf Coast, and the earthquakes that leveled portions of Pakistan all left permanent marks on 2005. Despite 2005's natural disasters, it was technology's impact that ultimately spurred a massive charitable giving response. Humanity's presence was felt around the globe as images and videos were shared in real time. Modern technology allowed for the realistic depiction of the nightmares taking place halfway around the world.

Most people view technology as cold and impersonal, yet it's important to acknowledge that without it, news of the 2005 disasters could not have spread as quickly or as widely as it did. Looking back on 2005 and ahead to 2006, it's clear that technology will continue to play a crucial role in people's lives and in society at large.

In 2005, splogs emerged from blogs as meaningless online scrapers generated floods of text. Both the spam problem and the discussion over whether or not it is ethical to scrape content have reached new heights. As a result of the violation of copyrights, I expect a new generation of content protection technologies to develop.

Spam and phishing were easier to spot, but spammers proved resourceful by developing new methods of inundation. In 2005, internet consumers viewed spam as one of life's constant frustrations, be it in the form of splogs or forum spam. According to my crystal ball, social bookmarking will be the most used spam device in 2006, drastically reducing the power of the masses to speak with one voice.

Unfortunately, there is now a lot of unnecessary noise on the Internet due to the proliferation of blogs. There will be a lot of meaningless blather on the internet since there are so many blogs, and so many of them are hosted for free on blog networks. The simplicity of blogging, which led to oversaturation, will ultimately prove to be its undoing. 

The value of credibility will rise once more. Bloggers' lack of credibility is good news for journalists who have been under attack in 2005. Community content and cooperation like Wikipedia will decline and become less relevant in 2006 as users seek out many sources to corroborate information and rely on trustworthy, authoritative sources. However, Wikipedia's accuracy is not up to par with its search performance. Like DMOZ, the spam that plagues the Wikipedia community is also the cause of the site's eventual demise. By the end of 2006, even the most popular community wikis will be largely forgotten.

Now that cell phones have become ubiquitous, it's unusual to stumble across one that can't also make or receive video or audio calls, as well as send and receive text messages and other types of multimedia content. In 2006, travelers are expected to abandon their personal digital assistants in favor of single multipurpose devices. In 2007, it's expected that most mobile phones will include MP3 players.

Even if wireless expansion has graduated from "hotspots" to "hot zones" and "hot cities," it is still noteworthy. In 2006, the most advanced wireless cities were Philadelphia and San Francisco.

What may we expect in the year 2006? The need to protect one's privacy is undeniable. Both Google and the United States government are fighting the "Big Brother" stereotype. The advent of data mining has given new significance to the information amassed. Attitudes toward Google are on the rise. While Google may have won over Wall Street, the search giant has seen a decline in user satisfaction as more people turn to rivals like Yahoo and Microsoft's Bing. With MSN and Yahoo fighting for market dominance and Google balancing privacy campaigners on one side and monopoly theorists on the other, the search engine battle is expected to flare up in 2006.

Like it or not, data is a commodity, and Google wants to turn a profit. It's possible that Google will use the information gathered from its numerous projects to create innovative products and tailor the user experience. Some people think Google may utilize its massive trove of user data to manipulate its pay-per-click pricing, sway its organic search results, or even sell it.

Google's expansion will continue to push privacy activists and tech industry leaders behind the Attention Trusted movement to collaborate on ways to better protect user data and subscriptions.There will undoubtedly be a lot of interest and work put into this.

The term "personalized content" will be widely used in 2006. The web is getting better at customizing content for individual users by tracking their preferences across a variety of platforms, such as podcast subscriptions, iTunes music purchases, and Amazon product recommendations. Internet users value personalization because it gives them more say over the media they consume. Users are reclaiming their media consumption experiences with technologies like TiVo and podcasting. But who is in charge when websites tailor what users see to their preferences?

Without using syndication and RSS, businesses will fail in 2005. All right, they have one more shot to get it right. RSS is a must-have tool for modern marketers in 2006. This innovation will no longer be cutting-edge but rather essential. Internet users today not only anticipate being given a choice in how they get content after providing personal information (such as an email address), but they also expect it.

In 2005, sales performance for vendors participating in affiliate programs declined. Pay-per-click advertising has provided publishers with a simple way to monetize their content without the hassle of dealing with affiliate tracking or cookie-killing software. Affiliate programs will become more popular in 2006 as click fraud and content scraping on AdSense sites increase to level the playing field.

Even though technological progress has brought us tragedy, it has also opened doors, making the global market a real possibility for even the smallest of businesses. This year, 2006, will see further evidence of the globalization trend, in my opinion.